It's the first week of the fantasy football playoffs, and if you're still alive and reading this, congratulations. The playoffs are no time for experimentation. If you lose, you're done, so there's no room for mistakes, either. Our in-depth, game-by-game analysis with Saturday injury updates is the only one of its kind, so dig in and make sure you get the right players on the field for your run at glory.

So, you've made the playoffs. You're pretty stoked, right? Don't get too excited. The best-laid plans can disintegrate right in front of you with one bad start. The weather is starting to get nasty on the east coast, and in our experience, watching the weather reports can be the difference between moving onto the next round or sending out bad beat emails to the rest of your league that no one will read.

At this point in the season, the numbers are a good jump-off point. There have been 13 weeks of data compiled on each of your players, and their scoring averages finally tell a meaningful tale. If you have two guys you're deciding between who have scoring averages within a point or two, that's when you want to start digging into this article and looking at weather reports. If you have two players who are five points apart in average, don't try to get too cute. There's a reason that across 13 games one player has averaged that many more points. They've proven they can perform at home, on the road, and against stiff competition.

Use all the data at your disposal and unless they're seriously injured, roll with your studs. It's like the old saying goes, dance with the girl that brought you. Hopefully we'll see you back here next week and good luck. 

Sunday, December 7

Jacksonville at Chicago

Start- Matt Jones had his hearing on his cocaine charge on Thursday, and we're in complete disbelief that they're saying he'll play this week. Some players around the league have complained that he's received preferential treatment, but what do you care? Apparently the league office has a lot to think about, but it's great news for his owners. Against the 29^th-ranked pass defense of the Bears, he should get you 6-7 receptions and close to 100 yards. He's a great second or third receiver this week. The Jags haven't been able to stop anyone this season whether they run or pass, so the Bears should put up nice stats. Kyle Orton should finally bounce back, which means good things for Devin Hester, who has become his go-to target the last couple weeks. Greg Olsen had an awful game last week, but he should bounce back here. The Bears have a reputation as a strong run defense, but the last couple weeks they've been ripped pretty good. Maurice Jones-Drew should be the next in line for a solid game. It goes without saying that you should start Matt Forte. He's turned into one of the most reliable fantasy backs in the NFL, and Jacksonville is 20^th against the run.

Sit- David Garrard looked passable on Monday night, but the Bears are sixth against the pass, so look for a total stinker here. Fred Taylor was the better of the two backs against Houston, but that's the first time it happened this season and things should go right back to normal. If your league still allows free agent pickups, Reggie Williams is undoubtedly the next in line once Matt Jones is suspended. Don't start him here, but if you've been leaning on Jones all season it's time to prepare for life without him if you move on. Brandon Lloyd had a couple decent games this season, but after being injured he hasn't looked like his old self. Don't take a chance on him.

Houston at Green Bay

Start- Matt Schaub was reportedly able to start on Monday night, but Houston decided to give him one more week of rest. He's definitely back this week just in time for the playoffs. It should increase the value of both Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter, though this game is going to be played in the cold, so don't expect massive numbers-even against the Packers secondary. Ryan Grant was pulled from last week's game with a sprained thumb, but we just think it was an excuse to get Brandon Jackson in the game, who ran a lot better. Coach McCarthy is saying Grant will get his usual load of carries this week with a splint on his thumb, but we wouldn't be surprised if it's a repeat of last week. This makes neither player an especially great start, though we would lean towards Grant if we had to choose one to play. Green Bay is a shocking 27^th against the run, so look for Steve Slaton to run wild once again, getting all the carries. Aaron Rodgers has been catching a lot of heat from Packers nation, but against the 23^rd-ranked Houston secondary, he should get back on track. That also means good things for Greg Jennings. Owen Daniels has been fading of late, and even in the points bonanza on Monday night he only had two catches. With Schaub back he should get more looks, but don't expect some of the obscene point totals he was racking up earlier in the season. He's still worth a start on most teams, though.

Sit- There are likely certain players on your roster who you can't figure out. They play well against tough defenses, but barely get involved against cupcakes. That's Donald Driver in a nutshell. He's playing a cupcake this week that won't be able to cover Jennings, so that means limited looks for Driver. He could potentially have a decent game, but it's not worth the risk in the playoffs. This should be a high scoring game, so hitch your wagon and enjoy the ride.

Minnesota at Detroit

Start- Adrian Peterson looked a little hurt at the end of last week's game, but he's listed as probable and apparently he's not hurt at all. He's going to have one of his best weeks of the season against the Lions, just when you need the points. Sit back and watch them roll up. Shaun McDonald is out this week, but that shouldn't stop Calvin Johnson from getting his usual 4-5 receptions for around 70 yards and a touchdown. He doesn't need many receptions to put up points. With Peterson a little dinged, Chester Taylor's stock suddenly increases. If AP takes a hard shot, Taylor's suddenly a top five back against the Lions. He should still get his share of the carries, and he's a goal line monster, so as a third RB he makes a decent play this week. Gus Frerotte is up and down like a yo-yo. Against Detroit he'll be up, and so will Bernard Berrian. Berrian is one of the best flex starts this week.

Sit- Kevin Smith is listed as questionable, and with the Wall of Williams playing this week after dodging suspension, he's not a viable start. Daunte Culpepper will get the start, but about the only thing we can say positive about him is that he's better than Dan Orlavsky and that he constantly feeds the ball to Megatron.

Cincinnati at Indianapolis

Start- Joseph Addai is questionable with a bum knee and hasn't practiced all week. It's a shame because fantasy players were just starting to get his value from him, and this matchup with the Bengals is a tasty one. Check the inactives list 30 minutes before kickoff, and if he doesn't go, Dominick Rhoades is a great fill-in. Anthony Gonzales is also hurt and did not practice on Friday. It's not looking good for him to start, but if he does he's a nice flex play as he's been coming on late in the season. TJ Houshmandzadeh suffered a slight concussion last week, but is good to go. He's the only Bengal worth inserting in your lineup as he's undoubtedly Ryan Fitzpatrick's go-to guy. Expect Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, and Dallas Clark to have solid games, but the Bengals defense has made a habit of rising to the competition at times, so don't expect the monster numbers most people think.

Sit- Marvin Harrison is one of those old-school fantasy names that most owners have won with in the past, so it's disappointing to see the kind of season he's having this year. He's dropped balls, not been involved, or been blanketed by top CBs all season-contributing to his fantasy irrelevance. Sit him, but don't watch the stat line. If he has his first decent game in weeks it will only bring you pain. Sit Chad Ocho Cinco along with Cedric Benson, who averaged 1.7 yards per carry against the Ravens last week.