Fantasy Football Start or Sit - Week 16 2009
The Championship Fantasy week is here and it's going to be a crazy one. Two of the best receivers in the NFL are due for bad days, a back-up running back is a must start and the Colts swear they're going to keep their starters in the game. A lot of interesting NFL twists in Week 16, so let's get down to it.
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Friday, December 25
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans 
Start – The Chargers are going to rely heavily on Phillip Rivers, Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson to perform well against the Titans’ 31st ranked pass defense. LaDanian Tomlinson should also have a solid day, as he has once again become a receiving threat out of the backfield and red zone option. As always Chris Johnson is a must start, especially against the Chargers, who have been extremely vulnerable against the run lately.
Sit – Vince Young has looked great since reassuming his starting role but against a talented Chargers’ secondary that should be able to shut down Kenny Britt and Justin Gage, this isn’t the week to start him. The Titans game plan will be geared towards the run, meaning Young’s pass attempts should suffer. Darren Sproles continues to be an afterthought for the Chargers.
Sunday, December 27
Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons 
Start – Tony Gonzalez and Roddy White should see the bulk of Atlanta’s pass attempts and are valuable on a reception and yardage basis alone. Terrell Owens should have a nice day against the Falcons’ awful secondary and Fred Jackson will have an opportunity to perform well against the league’s 20th ranked rush defense.
Sit – Despite being given the green light to play this week, Michael Turner has not been healthy and/or effective in six games and is a tad on the risky side given the fact that his team is eliminated from playoff contention. The same thing can be said for Matt Ryan, who is still battling an injury and may get pulled if he starts feeling uncomfortable. Jason Snelling is too risky given Turner’s status. Marshawn Lynch and Lee Evans continue to underachieve and have shown nowhere near the consistency required to warrant a championship round start.
Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals 
Start – Cedric Benson is primed for a banner day against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked rush defense, while Chad Ochocinco continues to be a consistent end zone and yardage threat for the Bengals. Jamaal Charles has been one of the hottest backs in the league of late and will get a chance to shine once again when the Chiefs passing game (playing the third ranked Bengals’ pass defense) will defer to the ground.
Sit – Matt Cassel is coming off of a big day against the Browns, but will face a much tougher match-up in Week 16. Expect him and his top targets Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers to be kept off the scoreboard by a motivated Bengals’ secondary. Laveranues Coles and Andre Caldwell have done nothing to prove their worth over the past three games and are must sits in this one.
Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns 
Start – Jerome Harrison is hot right now and facing a weaker Raiders’ run defense. Both he and the elusive Josh Cribbs should find a way to put some points on the board via the ground. Michael Bush is in no way a sure thing, but against the Browns he is a nice option to start. He’s coming off of a big week and should see the bulk of the carries.
Sit – With Brady Quinn out of the line-up, Derek Anderson will have a turn to embarrass the Browns’ passing game. Don’t expect much here against a surprisingly talented Raiders’ pass defense that has one of the best shutdown corners in the league. Justin Fargas and Darren McFadden are still in the “running back by committee” trap and aren’t seeing enough touches to become fantasy relevant, while Zach Miller is still listed as questionable after suffering his second concussion of the season two weeks ago. Charlie Frye is a probable start despite mild injury concerns, but do you really want to put him in the fantasy line-up during the most important game of the year?
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers 
Start – Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jermichael Finley should all able to take advantage of the Seahawks 29th ranked pass defense that gives up big plays nearly every week. Ryan Grant has three touchdowns in his last two games and will have the chance to add to that total in this lopsided affair. T.J. Houshmandzadeh will become the team’s number one receiver due to a Burleson injury, a role he thrived in last week where he was thrown the ball nine times.
Sit – Despite their struggles against the pass last week, the Packers have one of the best defenses in the NFL and will be facing an ice cold Matt Hasselbeck (two touchdowns and five interceptions in his last two games). Jim Mora recently said that his top receiver, Nate Burleson, will likely sit this game out due to injury. Julius Jones had just 12 carries last week and dealing with a bruised lung, while Justin Forsett hasn’t had more than nine carries in the past three weeks. John Carlson had a breakout game last Sunday, but has been ignored so often in the second half of the season that it seems more like an aberration than indicator.
Houston Texans at Miami Dolphins 
Start – A must win game for the Dolphins means their top weapon, Ricky Williams, will be front and center. He’s been a touchdown machine in the second half of the season and will face a Texans’ defense that has given out 100 yard rushing games like they’re going out of style. Matt Schaub is coming off back to back 300 yard performances and will face a Dolphins defense that surrenders more points to opposing quarterbacks than nearly any other team in the NFL. Andre Johnson and Kevin Walter should shine as well thanks to favorable match-ups.
Sit – Despite his recent fantasy success, Chad Henne will face a tough matchup this week against the Texans’ secondary. The give up just over 200 yards per game and have shut down some pretty talented quarterbacks of late. Brian Hartline, Greg Camarillo and Davone Bess won’t be able to do much in a game that will be won on the ground. Ryan Moats and Chris Brown simply don’t have the carries to warrant a start.
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots 
Start – Wes Welker, Tom Brady and Randy Moss will have the pleasure of facing the Jaguars 27th ranked pass defense at home, in a must win game. Maurice Jones-Drew may not have his best day of the year against a hungry Patriots team, but he’s been a consistent threat all year and is coming off of a 100 yard day. David Garrard had a three touchdown day last week and will look to Mike Sims-Walker often in the second half when the Jags are likely playing from behind.
Sit – With the passing game likely to be the Patriots focal point, it seems as though Laurence Maroney may be due for an off week. He hasn’t been putting up monster numbers and relies on touchdowns to make the fantasy quota. Marcedes Lewis will face a tough match-up with faster linebackers and an aggressive secondary that makes short passes extremely difficult.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints 
Start – Sean Payton says he has no intention of resting his starters this week so look for Drew Brees, Marques Colston and Robert Meachem to excel. Pierre Thomas had 92 yards against the Bucs earlier this year and should see a lot of red zone opportunities in the dome. Kellen Winslow has been putting up nice numbers of late and will be the go-to target for his struggling quarterback.
Sit – Jeremy Shockey and Reggie Bush are still battling injuries, so expect minimal action in a meaningless game. Devery Henderson has just two touchdowns all season and has seen his yardage decrease significantly over the last month. David Thomas is a possibility to fill in for Shockey, but with the unpredictable nature of a game with no playoff implications, it’s a mystery how much action he, or Shockey will see. Antonio Bryant has not broken 35 yards or reached the end zone in either of his last two games.
